NEW YORK, NY. (THECOUNT) — The world has reached a historic demographic turning point, with people ages 65 and older outnumbering children under age 5 globally, a shift driven by longer life expectancy and declining birth rates around the world.
The milestone actually occurred in 2018, when older people first outnumbered children younger than 5 worldwide, according to United Nations population data. The trend has continued as populations age and fertility rates decline across much of the globe.
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The change represents a dramatic reversal of population patterns that dominated much of the modern era. Advances in medicine, nutrition, sanitation and living conditions have allowed people to live substantially longer, while women in many countries are having fewer children than previous generations.
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Between 1974 and 2024, the worldwide share of people ages 65 and older nearly doubled, increasing from 5.5 percent to 10.3 percent. United Nations population projections indicate that the share is expected to nearly double again between 2024 and 2074, reaching approximately 20.7 percent of the global population.
At the same time, fertility has fallen dramatically in many countries. More than 60 percent of the world’s population now lives in countries where the total fertility rate is below the replacement level of approximately 2.1 births per woman.
The combination of fewer births and longer lives is fundamentally changing the age structure of the world’s population.
The consequences extend far beyond the simple number of older people. Governments are facing growing questions involving retirement and pension systems, health care, long-term care, housing, employment and the size of the future workforce.
Population aging is not occurring at the same speed everywhere. Europe and parts of Asia have some of the world’s oldest populations, while many countries in sub-Saharan Africa remain considerably younger. The broader aging trend, however, is increasingly global.
The demographic shift does not mean the world’s population is about to suddenly shrink. The United Nations expects the global population to continue increasing for several more decades before reaching a projected peak of approximately 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s.
What is changing more rapidly is the composition of that population.
The number of people ages 65 and older worldwide is expected to continue rising sharply in the coming decades. The population ages 80 and older is also projected to grow substantially, creating an increasingly large group of people living well beyond traditional retirement age.
Another major milestone is expected later this century, when the global population of people ages 65 and older is projected to surpass the number of children and adolescents under age 18.
The demographic transformation is therefore not simply a story about more elderly people. It is also a story about fewer babies, smaller families and longer lives — three forces that are reshaping economies and societies on a global scale.
For governments, businesses and families, the changing age structure presents both challenges and opportunities. Older people remain an important part of the workforce, consumer economy and community life, while societies must increasingly adapt to a population in which older generations represent a larger share of the total.
New York City is home to the United Nations headquarters and serves as a major international center for the study of global population trends and demographic change.
Google Maps: United Nations Headquarters, New York, NY
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